Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday. I've been sitting around reading the news and getting ready to tackle the coming weeks which will no doubt continue to see volatile trading. This market, not really sure where it wants to go, has been reacting violently both up and down to new data points. You can make a good profit playing off of these news releases if you know what to expect, though keep in mind the reactions can be very short lived. Here are some of the things we have to look forward to the next couple of weeks.
This coming Tuesday at 1pm keep on eye on the NAHB Housing Market Index expected to come in at 20.If your not familiar with the NAHB here is some explanation: NAHB produces the Housing Market Index (HMI), a weighted, seasonally adjusted statistic derived from ratings for present single-family sales, single-family sales in the next six months and buyers traffic. The first two components are measured on a scale of "good" "fair," and "poor," and the last one is measured on a scale of "high," "average," and "low."
A rating of 50 indicates that the number of positive or good responses received from the builders is about the same as the number of negative or poor responses. Ratings higher than 50 indicate more positive or good responses. We have not had a 50 for years... imagine that!
Wednesday is full of data:
7:00a.m. MBA Mortgage Refinancing Index. Previous: -3%.
7:45a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Feb 16. Previous: -0.7%.
8:30a.m. Jan Consumer Price Index. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.3%.
8:30a.m. Jan CPI, Ex-Food & Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.2%.
8:30a.m. Jan Housing Starts. Previous: -14.2%.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Feb 16. Previous: -1.2%.
2:00p.m. FOMC Minutes.
On Thursday the initial Jobless Claims out at 8:30 am could be a market mover, currently expecting +2k
Next week there isn't any slowing down:
Monday, February 25, 2008
10:00a.m. Jan Existing Home Sales. Previous: -2.2%.
10:30a.m. Feb Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index. Previous: 17.7%.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
7:45a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales Index For Feb 23.
8:30a.m. Jan Producer Price Index. Previous: -0.1%.
8:30a.m. Jan PPI, Ex-Food & Energy. Previous: +0.2%.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index For Feb 23.
10:00a.m. Feb Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Previous: 87.9.
10:00a.m. Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: -8.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
8:30a.m. Jan Durable Goods Orders. Previous: +5.2%.
10:00a.m. Jan New Home Sales. Previous: -4.7%.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Feb 23 Week.
8:30a.m. 4Q Prelim GDP. Previous: +0.6%.
Friday, February 29, 2008
8:30a.m. Jan Personal Income. Previous: +0.5%.
8:30a.m. Jan Personal Spending. Previous: +0.2%.
10:00a.m. End-Feb Reuters/U Of Mich Sentiment Index.
On top of that here are the earnings reports I'll be keeping an eye on:
19-Feb
ARTC ArthroCare Q4 2007 $ 0.49 19-Feb
AMCThe battle of Citron vs. ARTC continues....
CROX Crocs, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.44 19-Feb AMC
K-fine favorite!
FNDT Fundtech Corporation Q4 2007 $ 0.22 19-Feb BMO
IBD Fav
HPQ Hewlett-Packard Q1 2008 $ 0.81 19-Feb
Will see if the dominate Tech hardware company can keep it up.
IRBT iRobot Corp. Q4 2007 $ 0.41 19-Feb AMC
Is anybody still buying these... including the government?
LZB La-Z-Boy Inc. Q3 2008 $ 0.01 19-Feb AMC
Like the recliners better then the stock.
NED Noah Education Holding Limited Q2 2008 $ 0.05 19-Feb AMC
Undervalued Chinese education play.
NTRI NutriSystem Q4 2007 $ 0.29 19-Feb AMC
TXRH TEXAS ROADHOUSE INC Q4 2007 $ 0.11 19-Feb AMC
I think they can still pull off the quarter but the sector is so hated the risk reward isn't that great.
JOE The St. Joe Company Q4 2007 $ 0.05 19-Feb BMO
WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Q4 2008 $ 1.02 19-Feb
WFMI Whole Foods Market Q1 2008 $ 0.36 19-Feb AMC
Are people still paying $9 for a half pound of lunch meat? If so the economy can't be that bad.
20-Feb
AFSI AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES INC Q4 2007 $ 0.35 20-Feb AMC
My favorite undervalued insurance play, stock has started to show a little strength lately.
GRMN Garmin Ltd. Q4 2007 $ 1.10 20-Feb BMO
Can they navigate their way back to higher growth?
OII OCEANEERING INTL INC Q4 2007 $ 0.82 20-Feb AMC
Oil service works, would work better with some more hurricane's in the Gulf though.
PRGN PARAGON SHIPPING INC Q4 2007 $ 0.21 20-Feb AMC
I'm not touching the shipping stocks here
PQ PetroQuest Energy Q4 2007 $ 0.20 20-Feb BMO
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.41 20-Feb AMC
Cramer's future home?
TEX Terex Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.40 20-Feb AMC
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.63 20-Feb BMO
Pre-anounced positive numbers all things considered.
RIG Transocean Inc. Q4 2007 $ 2.54 20-Feb BMO
Best of breed in a great sector.
21-Feb
BCSI Blue Coat Systems Q3 2008 $ 0.33 21-Feb BMO
CHK Chesapeake Energy Corporation Q4 2007 $ 0.81 21-Feb AMC
STV China Digital TV Holding Co. Ltd Q4 2007 $ 0.18 21-Feb AMC
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Q4 2007 $ 1.66 21-Feb AMC
Stock has climbed the cliff already.
SWIM Investools Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.20 21-Feb AMC
JCP JCPenney Q4 2007 $ 1.77 21-Feb
Carl bought it recently much cheaper then it is now.
NDSN Nordson Q1 2008 $ 0.60 21-Feb AMC
Boring, but boring can be good here.
RUTH Ruth's Chris Steak House, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.20 21-Feb AMC
See what charging $50 bucks for a steak gets ya, a lower stock price.
SWY Safeway Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.68 21-Feb
TSCM TheStreet.com Q4 2007 $ 0.16 21-Feb BMO
VDSI VASCO Data Security International Q4 2007 $ 0.20 21-Feb
Stock has been destroyed since last call and a decent number should lead the way to somewhat of a recovery.
ZLC Zale Corporation Q2 2008 $ 1.10 21-Feb BMO3
Looks like a good short to me.
25-Feb
LDK LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Q4 2007 $ 0.41 25-Feb AMC
JWN Nordstrom Q4 2007 $ 0.89 25-Feb AMC
26-Feb
ADSK Autodesk, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.54 26-Feb
AZO AutoZone Inc. Q2 2008 $ 1.62 26-Feb BMO
Not a believer but they somehow tend to meet numbers in any environment.
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.04 26-Feb AMC
CRDN Ceradyne Q4 2007 $ 1.30 26-Feb BMO
Best days may be behind them.
DISH DISH Network Corporation Q4 2007 $ 0.45 26-Feb
DPZ Domino's Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.26 26-Feb
If cheese inflation is any indicator for the economy were in trouble. How can we function as a society if people can't afford cheese?
FWLT Foster Wheeler Ltd. Q4 2007 $ 0.76 26-Feb BMO
HLS Healthsouth Q4 2007 $ 0.00 26-Feb
HLF HERBALIFE LTD Q4 2007 $ 0.73 26-Feb AMCHD
Home Depot Inc Q4 2007 $ 0.44 26-Feb
KBR KBR, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.32 26-Feb
Come on LOGCAP
M Macy's, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 1.60 26-Feb
SIRI Sirius Satellite Radio Q4 2007 -$ 0.13 26-Feb
Even with the merger I'm skeptical on how much upside is here in the near term.
TGT Target Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.22 26-Feb BMO
Someday they'll get back on target but not this qtr.
27-Feb
WTR Aqua America Q4 2007 $ 0.20 27-Feb
DYN Dynegy Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.02 27-Feb BMO
FSS Federal Signal Q4 2007 $ 0.14 27-Feb BMO
These guys are putting Bass systems in cop cars that makes the car shake of whoever they are pulling over. Wonder if they could knock people down with that - the bass gun! Could hurt TASR if it ever comes.
FLS Flowserve Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.23 27-Feb AMC
MDR McDermott International Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.65 27-Feb AMC
CRM Salesforce.com, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.04 27-Feb AMC
SaaS is the model of the future.
TOL Toll Brothers Q1 2008 -$ 0.44 27-Feb BMO
Stop building homes!
28-Feb
My favorite undervalued insurance play, stock has started to show a little strength lately.
GRMN Garmin Ltd. Q4 2007 $ 1.10 20-Feb BMO
Can they navigate their way back to higher growth?
OII OCEANEERING INTL INC Q4 2007 $ 0.82 20-Feb AMC
Oil service works, would work better with some more hurricane's in the Gulf though.
PRGN PARAGON SHIPPING INC Q4 2007 $ 0.21 20-Feb AMC
I'm not touching the shipping stocks here
PQ PetroQuest Energy Q4 2007 $ 0.20 20-Feb BMO
PSYS Psychiatric Solutions, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.41 20-Feb AMC
Cramer's future home?
TEX Terex Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.40 20-Feb AMC
TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.63 20-Feb BMO
Pre-anounced positive numbers all things considered.
RIG Transocean Inc. Q4 2007 $ 2.54 20-Feb BMO
Best of breed in a great sector.
21-Feb
BCSI Blue Coat Systems Q3 2008 $ 0.33 21-Feb BMO
CHK Chesapeake Energy Corporation Q4 2007 $ 0.81 21-Feb AMC
STV China Digital TV Holding Co. Ltd Q4 2007 $ 0.18 21-Feb AMC
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Q4 2007 $ 1.66 21-Feb AMC
Stock has climbed the cliff already.
SWIM Investools Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.20 21-Feb AMC
JCP JCPenney Q4 2007 $ 1.77 21-Feb
Carl bought it recently much cheaper then it is now.
NDSN Nordson Q1 2008 $ 0.60 21-Feb AMC
Boring, but boring can be good here.
RUTH Ruth's Chris Steak House, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.20 21-Feb AMC
See what charging $50 bucks for a steak gets ya, a lower stock price.
SWY Safeway Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.68 21-Feb
TSCM TheStreet.com Q4 2007 $ 0.16 21-Feb BMO
VDSI VASCO Data Security International Q4 2007 $ 0.20 21-Feb
Stock has been destroyed since last call and a decent number should lead the way to somewhat of a recovery.
ZLC Zale Corporation Q2 2008 $ 1.10 21-Feb BMO3
Looks like a good short to me.
25-Feb
LDK LDK Solar Co., Ltd. Q4 2007 $ 0.41 25-Feb AMC
JWN Nordstrom Q4 2007 $ 0.89 25-Feb AMC
26-Feb
ADSK Autodesk, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.54 26-Feb
AZO AutoZone Inc. Q2 2008 $ 1.62 26-Feb BMO
Not a believer but they somehow tend to meet numbers in any environment.
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.04 26-Feb AMC
CRDN Ceradyne Q4 2007 $ 1.30 26-Feb BMO
Best days may be behind them.
DISH DISH Network Corporation Q4 2007 $ 0.45 26-Feb
DPZ Domino's Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.26 26-Feb
If cheese inflation is any indicator for the economy were in trouble. How can we function as a society if people can't afford cheese?
FWLT Foster Wheeler Ltd. Q4 2007 $ 0.76 26-Feb BMO
HLS Healthsouth Q4 2007 $ 0.00 26-Feb
HLF HERBALIFE LTD Q4 2007 $ 0.73 26-Feb AMCHD
Home Depot Inc Q4 2007 $ 0.44 26-Feb
KBR KBR, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.32 26-Feb
Come on LOGCAP
M Macy's, Inc. Q4 2007 $ 1.60 26-Feb
SIRI Sirius Satellite Radio Q4 2007 -$ 0.13 26-Feb
Even with the merger I'm skeptical on how much upside is here in the near term.
TGT Target Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.22 26-Feb BMO
Someday they'll get back on target but not this qtr.
27-Feb
WTR Aqua America Q4 2007 $ 0.20 27-Feb
DYN Dynegy Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.02 27-Feb BMO
FSS Federal Signal Q4 2007 $ 0.14 27-Feb BMO
These guys are putting Bass systems in cop cars that makes the car shake of whoever they are pulling over. Wonder if they could knock people down with that - the bass gun! Could hurt TASR if it ever comes.
FLS Flowserve Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.23 27-Feb AMC
MDR McDermott International Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.65 27-Feb AMC
CRM Salesforce.com, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.04 27-Feb AMC
SaaS is the model of the future.
TOL Toll Brothers Q1 2008 -$ 0.44 27-Feb BMO
Stop building homes!
28-Feb
DVR Cal Dive International Q1 2008 $ 0.29 28-Feb AMC
CMED China Medical Technologies, Inc. Q3 2007 $ 0.45 28-Feb AMC
DELL Dell, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.36 28-Feb AMC
Interesting to see how PC demand has kept up. The 41% short interest in SYX has caught my eye.
EPL ENERGY PARTNERS LTD Q4 2007 $ 0.10 28-Feb BMO
Congratulations on being the worst run energy company ever! Passing up that tender offer of double where the stock is now was a great move.
FLR Fluor Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.18 28-Feb BMO
GPS Gap Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.34 28-Feb AMC
KSS Kohls Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.31 28-Feb 4:00 PM
SHLD Sears Holdings Corp Q4 2007 $ 3.10 28-Feb BMO
Never ending house of pain? Eddie what have you done for me lately Eddie?
S Sprint Nextel Corporation Q4 2007 $ 0.18 28-Feb BMO
29-Feb
CDE Coeur d'Alene Mines Q4 2007 $ 0.03 29-Feb BMO
VNR VANGUARD NATURAL RESOURCES LLC Q4 2007 $ 0.51 29-Feb
Can't wait for the CC and div announcement. This qtr will be much better then last.
Happy and safe trading to all.
Positions: Long VNR, SYX, Overreaction's to data points, Keeping short time frames.
CMED China Medical Technologies, Inc. Q3 2007 $ 0.45 28-Feb AMC
DELL Dell, Inc. Q4 2008 $ 0.36 28-Feb AMC
Interesting to see how PC demand has kept up. The 41% short interest in SYX has caught my eye.
EPL ENERGY PARTNERS LTD Q4 2007 $ 0.10 28-Feb BMO
Congratulations on being the worst run energy company ever! Passing up that tender offer of double where the stock is now was a great move.
FLR Fluor Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.18 28-Feb BMO
GPS Gap Inc. Q4 2007 $ 0.34 28-Feb AMC
KSS Kohls Corporation Q4 2007 $ 1.31 28-Feb 4:00 PM
SHLD Sears Holdings Corp Q4 2007 $ 3.10 28-Feb BMO
Never ending house of pain? Eddie what have you done for me lately Eddie?
S Sprint Nextel Corporation Q4 2007 $ 0.18 28-Feb BMO
29-Feb
CDE Coeur d'Alene Mines Q4 2007 $ 0.03 29-Feb BMO
VNR VANGUARD NATURAL RESOURCES LLC Q4 2007 $ 0.51 29-Feb
Can't wait for the CC and div announcement. This qtr will be much better then last.
Happy and safe trading to all.
Positions: Long VNR, SYX, Overreaction's to data points, Keeping short time frames.
8 Comments:
Very comprehensive presentation of next week's events. I think you pay attention to way too many variables. There is nothing wrong with that. It is just time consuming and not always
efficient. Take care.
Hi Ivanhoff!
I totally agree that paying attention to ever data point is way too time consuming and it is not efficient because many of them end up having little significance. For my investments with their own thesis I couldn't care less about almost all of these things.
From a trading perspective lately I have just been able to take advantage of how the market has been over reacting to them. In an uncertain market like this I expect that to continue for the time being.
All I had to see was the monkey reading the news and I was laughing MAO.
I for my part recommend that as investors and traders we always look at least one week out and preferably two weeks out.
Investors should memorize what is on the monthly calendar and know when what reports come out when during the month.
Ivan is right, you have to filter out what news will have little input on the markets you trade or invest in, because it is very time consuming.
Most events on the monthly economic calendar only have slight bearish and bullish inputs on the financial markets.
Secular and cyclical trends will dominate the direction of the financial markets and the economic announcements during the month rarely change cyclical or secular market trends.
As for this weeks inputs, they should generally support the secularly bearish trends in the equity markets - with the exception of the Core CPI for Jan on Wednesday which may uptick. Still that too will likely be disregarded.
More important is this question, will the equity markets shrug off the bearish inputs, will they receive bullish inputs from the monoline bailouts or bearish inputs from them.
Right now, the monolines are largely driving the financial markets and any news on that front bullish or bearish will have a measurable impact.
Still, equities may find bearish inputs over the near term and still not trade lower. If that happens, a light bulb should go off that whe bearish inputs are disregarded, that is bullish near term for the equities.
In recent weeks I have been watching the tape, and equities have been shrugging off bearish inputs fairly well. This could be bullish equities and bearish bonds near term if it persists.
Oh, properly filtering the news aggressively is very important. That is what allows me to overweight monoline considerations/inputs over almost all else for the near term in my scenario planning.
Interesting development with the insurers trying to split themselves up. This should not be any help to the financials though already beaten up I feel may be more so in the near future.
The consumer report I felt was a big positive for the market as the biggest part of this economy is holding up fairly well. It really made me feel a lot better sentiment wise. However if jobless claims or inflation data come in too bearish I think we will see some sharp reactions.
The insurers are living on Project Lifeline themselves. Guess what, they are dead meat. Bond insurers can't separate the two portfolios without incurring huge litigation for years to come. Hell it just plain ain't legal.
BofA analyst Jeff Rosenberg wrote to clients on Feb 15 ``Despite the regulatory interest in separating the exposures, the essential fact remains that all policy holders, whether municipal or structured finance, entered into contracts backed by the entire entity monoline).''
I am scalping in and out of treasury futures on the economic reports, where I can find a reasonable edge.
For eg. I bought treasuries this evening, but I know that a bounce tomorrow may not go far and that they may be pressured lower later in the week. So, I may be flat by Core CPI report on Wed morn, in case they want to take treasuries down that day. Then I will probably buy em again once that inflationary risk has passed.
Leonard,
I appreciated this post, and am sure everyone here is aware, we all use different tools in investing and trading.
Which will always be the case, because if there was one sure way to make a profit, we would all be doing the same thing. Course, actually, we wouldn't - our automatic software would be doing it for us while we sit on a beach and drink banana daquiri's. Wait a sec! I hate banana's! (I hope Leonard does not adore me less because of that. hehe)
John - scalping? My, my. I had no idea. For some reason, that reminded me of a time my son tied himself to the front tree and was yelling "Help! Help!". Course, you can imagine my embarassment. hehe Not to mention the explaining I would have had to do if the police just happened to drive by at that time.
When I ran out, as I was hurriedly untying my son, I asked him what the heck he was doing! He said he was playing cowboys and indians and did I think the indians got him?
Oh my. I still crack up (now) thinking about that.
Thanks for making me laugh this day. It is appreciated. :)
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