I have been a long time student of Gann, Elliot, Fibonacci, and others that many would call mystical approachs to the market.
I have attached what I see as the potential setup for Monday based on this approach. It is comprised of 3 Gann fans and 2 different cycles.
As you can see the orange cycle lines up with 4/11. That combined with the Gann lines create a very compelling set of confluence points. I see three potential scenarios:
- The 1330 area hollds using the crossing Gann lines as support and we get a rally back to the 1380 area
- The 1330 area breaks down and we fall to 1310 area and hold using the Gann line and the lows of 3/28 and 3/31
- The 1310 breaks down and we fall to 1280-1290 as a retest.
Seems like a pretty critical point in this market. The news is still bad, I unfortunately have a hard time believing we are going to rally.
I have attached what I see as the potential setup for Monday based on this approach. It is comprised of 3 Gann fans and 2 different cycles.
As you can see the orange cycle lines up with 4/11. That combined with the Gann lines create a very compelling set of confluence points. I see three potential scenarios:
- The 1330 area hollds using the crossing Gann lines as support and we get a rally back to the 1380 area
- The 1330 area breaks down and we fall to 1310 area and hold using the Gann line and the lows of 3/28 and 3/31
- The 1310 breaks down and we fall to 1280-1290 as a retest.
Seems like a pretty critical point in this market. The news is still bad, I unfortunately have a hard time believing we are going to rally.
3 Comments:
Dean
I'm in the retest camp fwiw. The volume has been light but to carve a successful bottom I really think we need another reality check. The VIX needs to pop again. Too many folks think we are out of the rapids.
I too think we need to retest and not have fed intervene at 1250 SP. I dont think it will hold and market down another 100 sp points fed cuts again .75% and then rally strong.
April 15 means new IRA moneys stop coming in to funds and people get 401k statements and cry. VIX is way too complacent. By the end of May I think we will know the answer. Earnings and options should make this week crazy.
Jim in Iowa
Superimposing an Andrews Pitchfork on the weekly chart of the S&P 500 (beginning with the low of August 2004 and with the lowest trendline of the fork passing through the low of March 2008) supports the view of a drop to 1275 by early June followed by a rally---with an upside target of 1480 in late summer/fall. Interestingly enough, that's where we were in late August of 2007.
Yeah, call me crazy.
Chip
Post a Comment